CHIO Aachen 2019 is arriving. It is my first, and one of the events I have heard the most about in my time at EquiRatings. From a numbers point of view, it is clearly bringing together a highly competitive class of international eventers. When an event has as high a quality of field as this, it can sometimes be difficult to make sense of it all. If we want to look beyond the top two or three favourites and to who else is here with a chance, the Eventing Prediction Centre can provide a lot of insight. Let’s have a look at how the machine thinks CHIO Aachen 2019 is going to play out.
No prizes for guessing who sits on top of the win predictions. SAP Hale Bob and Ingrid Klimke are on a 25% win chance. Just one win for the pair in their last 8 internationals however means plenty of people are willing to take them on in the market. Many are looking towards the combination which the machine places at number two, Samourai Du Thot and Julia Krajewski. Julia might be the reigning champion (on Chipmunk FRH as he was then) but this year arrives on Samourai who has something to prove at Aachen. This will be his third appearance at the venue and for a horse who has the highest win rate in the field, he will be looking for just his first finish here.
Almost on par with SAP Hale Bob in win, top 3 and top 10 probabilities, these two are neck and neck. Looking at some of the underlying scores we have Samourai as more reliable in the Show Jumping but that gain is being offset by SAP Hale Bob being slightly ahead in the first phase and maybe a second or two quicker across country. But realistically there isn’t much to separate the two, and together they take up almost 50% of our total win market.
Don’t stop your analysis there. While those two are heavy favourites, both arrived here last year in similar (or better!) form. SAP Hale Bob finished 19th and Samourai didn’t complete. The winner on that day Chipmunk, is back to defend his title, this time with Michael Jung, and now called fischerChipmunk FRH. We have them at an 11% chance to win. If they manage to get very close (within a mark or two) to the two favourites in the first phase, I would expect to see that win chance rise before the competition is over.
The German trio now have close to 60% of our win market. Perhaps you’re thinking that’s too low, surely our winner is going to come from those three? Well, no actually. Before the final phase at Arville, we had a 50% chance that either Chris Burton or Gemma Tattersall would take home the win. They didn’t. After the dressage (record!) test at Wiesbaden for Ingrid and a very low twenties score for Julia, they had a combined 60% chance of winning that weekend. When you think back to those moments, it felt almost impossible that not one of those four would go on to win. Eventing Prediction Centre would have agreed it was unlikely but it would have cautioned you that it was of course possible.
Let’s therefore keep our mind open. From mine, (limited) time working in eventing, I think people have looked past Tim Lips and Bayro. The Eventing Prediction Centre flags them as the other obvious win contender for CHIO Aachen, and by far the most likely non-German winner. Following Tim, we have 10 combinations with between a 2-4% chance of taking the 2019 crown. It’s difficult to highlight any one of them as obvious contenders, together the comprise 27% of our win market. Collectively one of them is more likely to win than any of the individual favourites.
CHIO Aachen is of course more than an individual competition. Before we sign off, let’s have a quick look at some of the combinations who may be unlikely to win individually, but could add some serious team points with a top 10 finish. For Australia, keep an eye on Vassily De Lassos to climb up the leader-board after the first phase. With only a 2% chance of winning we give him a 40% chance of finishing in the top 10.
For the USA, it may seem obvious but we have Phillip Dutton and Z with nearly even odds of a top 10 finish (46%). For Team GB it would be difficult to miss the big hitters of Laura Collett - London 52 or Piggy French on Quarrycrest Echo who have real chances of making the podium, but also keep in mind Gemma Tattersall and Jalepeno. While they might not finish in the top 3 (though we still give that an 8% chance), they are very much in the running to finish in the top 10, which could have GB really challenging Germany for that overall team win.
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