Riders are taking advantage of this year's CCI4*-S happening during #thebestweekendallyear and ladies are leading the favourites to win it. Here are the pre-event win chances for the 2021 Kentucky CCI4*-S according to the SAP Eventing Prediction Centre.
Eventing Prediction Centre Win Chances for the Kentucky CCI4*-S (Top 11)
See the full list of predictions on the SAP Prediction Centre website.
Danito & Tamie Smith – USA
Danito has had four runs at the CCI4*-S level and has earned a top three placing in three of them, including a win at Woodside CCI4*-S in October 2020.
Danito enters the Kentucky CCI4*-S with the lowest six-run dressage average (6RA) of all horses in the field, currently boasting a 6RA of 26.2. In fact, he is coming right off the back of his personal best dressage score at the four-star level: a 24.4 which he earned earlier this month at The Fork CCI4*-S.
Of his 12 international cross country starts, Danito has jumped clear in 10 of them and, of our top three favourites, he has produced the lowest finishing score at the level: a 32.9 at Twin Rivers CCI4*-S in 2019.
With Mai Baum, Tamie is also one of the favourites to win the Land Rover Kentucky CCI5*-L class this weekend. Wouldn't it be something for her to bring home the win in both classes?!
RF Cool Play and Lynn Symansky – USA
RF Cool Play has had one appearance at the CCI4-S level and three CCI4*-L appearances. He completed each of those four-star runs and earned a top five result in two of them (both CCI4*-L). He has the second-lowest six-run dressage average (6RA) with a 27.8, not far behind the favourite, Danito.
RF Cool Play is also one of the strongest show jumpers in the class with an SJ6 Difference to Par (SJ6 DTP) of -4.0 (meaning he incurs 4.0 fewer SJ jumping penalties than his opponents, on average) and he is a very strong cross country jumper with a XCJ10 Difference to Par (XCJ10 DTP) of + 30% (meaning his XCJ clear rate is 30% above average for the courses he has run). In fact, RF Cool Play is entering the Kentucky CCI4*-S on a cross country jumping streak of 15 straight clear XCJ rounds at the international level, including jumping clear in each of his four-star appearances.
To boot, RF Cool Play enters as the highest-rated Elo horse in the field. With more international experience than Danito, RF Cool Play is currently on an impressive 655 Elo rating.
Landmark’s Monte Carlo and Lauren Nicholson – USA
Landmark’s Monte Carlo enters the Kentucky CCI4*-S as the most experienced of our top three favourites. He has had a previous 14 four-star completions and two five-star completions. He most-recently finished fourth at Red Hills CCI4*-S last month on his best-ever finishing score at the four- and five-star level: a 34.0
He is the fastest horse in the field, entering on a Top Speed Percentage (TSP) of 92% (meaning on his fastest days, Landmark’s Monte Carlo has outpaced 92% of his competitors) and he is the third-highest Elo-rated horse coming into the CCI4*-S, currently on a 601 rating.
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Maria joined the EquiRatings team in early 2020 with years of academic and work experience in the physical sciences. She now specialises in technical writing and editing and in communicating EquiRatings analyses to lay audiences. Maria is from the USA and moved to Ireland in February 2020.