SAP Eventing Insights - Arville

by Sean Murray

SAP Eventing Insights - Arville is wide open

Arville, the 3rd leg of the 2019 Event Rider Masters series, looks set to be the best competition yet. A compact group of world class combinations arrive, many of whom have a proper chance of finishing on the podium. Chatsworth had one clear favourite coming in - Laura Collett and London 52, who led the event start to finish. Wiesbaden was billed as a showdown between two German powerhouses in SAP Hale Bob and Samourai Du Thot (alas, eventing isn’t always such smooth sailing, and an uncharacteristic 3 poles (SAP Hale Bob) and a late withdrawal (Samourai) left the door open for Michael Jung and Star Connection to step in and claim their second ERM leg (their first being Jardy 2017).

The field at Arville is more evenly spread out. Leading the way are three big guns (two series champions), all of whom know what it takes to win an ERM Leg. Gemma Tattersall – Quicklook V (17% win chance), Christopher Burton - Quality Purdey (13% win chance) and Laura Collett – Dacapo (12% win chance). While they are our favourites coming in, it would be remiss to think the winner must to come from that pack (despite whatever Diarm is shouting in his corner). Together they take up just 42% of our total win market. Compare that to Wiesbaden where we thought there was a 54% chance that our winner was going to be either Ingrid or Julia.

What is limiting their chances is the strength of the field behind them. Sitting on win chances of 9-10% we have our second tranche of top-class performers, Nicola Wilson – Bulana, Tim Price – Wesko, and Bill Levett - Shannondale Titan.  With over 100 international competitions between them, these guys represent a wealth of experience, and none of them are strangers to the podium either. One of them will likely be in the mix come Sunday, and don’t be surprised if they are challenging for that top spot.

But the story doesn’t end there, we have another three combinations with 6-7% chances of taking the leg, and each with at least a 20% chance of making the podium. This bunch includes former 5* winners Jonelle Price - Faerie Dianimo in their first international since that win at Luhmühlen 2018.   Just two weeks ago, we were reminded that we shouldn’t count this group out, as we had Michael Jung and Star Connection winning Wiesbaden after starting out on very similar odds.

All this goes to show is that the story of Arville is very far from being written, so follow along with  Eventing Prediction Centre to see how the competition plays out.

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