Data in sport needs no introduction. Eventing is a complex sport which requires strong feel and intuition. These assets are greatly complemented and aided by the use of data and analysis.
No team or athlete can guarantee success, so the aim is to maximise your chance of success. In order to effectively manage your chance of success, you must measure it.
Every horse and rider combination carries an expected level of performance and an expected level of reliability and these values are ever-shifting. That is why simply measuring penalties or poles down is unreliable. That is measuring outcomes. A rider, an owner or a coach should be managing chance, rather than measuring outcomes. We measure chance so that important decisions can be informed by insight rather than biased by perception.
The simple summaries are things like averages (dressage score, time penalties, finishing score), clear rates (cross-country jumping and show jumping), and zone analysis.
The complex summaries are things like OBP (opposition beaten percentage), adjustments (XCJ and SJ), top speed percentage, and the HPR (high performance rating).
Our key predictive metrics are called expected values and we produce them for dressage, show jumping and cross-country (jump and time).
Decision such as ‘do we take a horse that is more reliable or lower scoring?’. We measure how these decisions impact the critical chance of success.