In This Guide

1. Statistics vs Metrics: Why the Distinction Matters
2. Quick Definitions
3. The EquiRatings Elo
4. Win Chance
5. High Performance Rating (HPR)
6. Phase-Specific Metrics: 6RA, XCJ10, SJ6, OBP
7. Case Study: When Similar Scores Mean Very Different Things
8. Why EquiRatings Built These Metrics
9. Frequently Asked Questions
10. Related Guides

 

Introduction

For over a century, equestrian sport was judged by subjective measures. Talent. Feel. Instinct. These things still matter. But EquiRatings has introduced a parallel language - one built from data.

Since our founding, we have processed millions of data points from international competition across eventing, show jumping, and dressage. The result is a standardised framework for understanding and predicting performance: the EquiRatings Elo, Win Chance, the High Performance Rating, and a suite of phase-specific metrics used by elite riders, national federations, and media partners worldwide.

This page is the authoritative reference for all of them. Whether you are a high-performance manager, a professional rider, or a fan trying to understand what the numbers actually mean, everything starts here.

 

1. Statistics vs Metrics: Why the Distinction Matters

Traditional equestrian analysis relied on statistics - raw numbers like clear rates, penalties, and averages. These describe what happened in the past. EquiRatings works with metrics, which take those raw numbers and organise them into models that explain performance and predict future outcomes.

The difference matters because context changes everything. A clear round on a straightforward course and a clear round at Badminton are not the same thing. A dressage score of 28 in a weak field and a 28 against the world's best are not equivalent. Metrics adjust for these differences. Statistics cannot.

 

 

This is where insight begins  and where EquiRatings is different from any other source of equestrian data.

 

2. Quick Definitions

The three core EquiRatings metrics each answer a different question:

 

3. The EquiRatings Elo

The EquiRatings Elo is the most significant contribution to equestrian performance analysis. Originally developed for chess, the Elo system has been adapted by EquiRatings to measure a horse's true competitive level. It is not just a snapshot of recent form, but a sustained picture of quality built across hundreds of competitions.

How it works

Elo operates as a zero-sum system. After every competition, points transfer between competitors. If Horse A beats Horse B, points move from B to A. The number of points exchanged is not fixed as it depends on the ratings of the horses involved. Beating a higher-rated opponent earns more points. Losing to a lower-rated one costs more.

This means a win in a weak field is worth less than a podium finish at a championship. The system is designed to reward genuine quality, not accumulated results.

Elo Field Strength

Elo Field Strength measures the overall competitive quality of a starting field. It is calculated as the average Elo rating of the top 25 rated horses entered. A higher field strength score indicates a deeper, more competitive line-up and provides a straightforward way to compare the difficulty of different events.

What it tells you

Over time, ratings naturally settle toward a horse's true competitive level. Horses that consistently beat strong opposition climb. Those that underperform against weaker fields decline. The result is a ranking that reflects long-term consistency and competitive quality and correlates strongly with future success.

Learn more: What is the EquiRatings Elo? → https://news.equiratings.com/stories/what-is-the-equiratings-elo

 

4. Win Chance

While Elo tells us who the strongest competitors are, Win Chance tells us what is most likely to happen next. It is the output of the EquiRatings Eventing Performance Model built with SAP predictive analytics and trained on over two million rows of international results spanning more than a decade.

How it works

Every horse and rider combination receives a performance profile based on their likely outputs across dressage, cross-country, and show jumping. The model draws on recent dressage averages, cross-country completion and clear rates, show jumping fault history, venue trends, and the quality of opposition previously beaten.

To turn those profiles into predictions, EquiRatings runs 10,000 simulations of the competition before the first horse enters the arena. In each simulation, every combination is assigned a plausible performance based on their statistical range, generating a realistic distribution of possible outcomes.

Reading the output

The results are expressed as percentage probabilities. A horse with a 22% Win Chance won 2,200 of the 10,000 simulated competitions. The same simulations generate probabilities for podium finishes, top-10 results, and other outcomes.

Testing the model against historical competitions shows that the numbers align closely with real-world results. Horses given a 25% Win Chance tend to win roughly one in four times. Those with 1% odds rarely succeed but they do, sometimes, which is part of what makes the sport.

Learn more: Why Win Chance Matters → https://news.equiratings.com/stories/the-most-misunderstood-metric-in-equestrian-sport-why-win-chance-matters

 

 

5. High Performance Rating (HPR)

The High Performance Rating measures the quality of a single performance. Elo tracks long-term competitive strength. HPR isolates how impressive one result actually was, regardless of finishing position or recent form.

Context over placement

Traditional leaderboards tell you who finished first. HPR evaluates what that finish required. The model adjusts for field strength, course difficulty, margin of victory, and the conditions of the competition to determine how exceptional the performance was relative to the challenge faced.

This is why HPR often identifies performances that standard results miss. Finishing fifth in an exceptionally competitive championship field can produce a higher HPR than winning a weaker event. The metric measures quality, not just outcome.

How to read the score

 

 

Within the EquiRatings ecosystem, HPR and Elo work together: Elo tracks sustained competitive level over time, HPR captures what a horse is capable of when everything comes together.

Learn more: What is the High Performance Rating? → https://news.equiratings.com/stories/what-is-the-high-performance-rating

 

6. Phase-Specific Metrics: 6RA, XCJ10, SJ6, and OBP

Alongside the three core metrics, EquiRatings uses a set of phase-specific indicators to break performance down by discipline. These are the building blocks used inside Win Chance models and individual horse analysis.

 

 

These metrics allow analysts, riders, and coaches to pinpoint strengths and weaknesses across the three phases - identifying, for example, whether a horse's cross-country clear rate is genuinely strong or inflated by easy tracks, or whether a dressage average reflects consistent quality or a single outlier performance.

 

7. Case Study: When Similar Scores Mean Very Different Things

In 2023, Ros Canter and Lordships Graffalo won the Badminton Horse Trials CCI5* on a score of 35.3. In 2024, Lara de Liedekerke-Meier and Hooney D'Arville won the Luhmühlen CCI5* on 35.6. At first glance, these look like near-identical performances.

They were not. Badminton 2023 was an exceptionally demanding cross-country test - no combination finished near the optimum time. At Luhmühlen 2024, four combinations achieved it. The course difficulty was incomparable, and finishing scores alone could not reflect that.

 

 

The HPR gap — 111 versus 94 — tells the real story. Winning Badminton in 2023 required a significantly stronger performance than winning Luhmühlen the following year, despite the near-identical scores.

This is exactly the kind of distinction that EquiRatings metrics are designed to reveal and that no other source of equestrian data currently provides.

 

8. Why EquiRatings Built These Metrics

EquiRatings was founded by Diarmuid Byrne and Sam Watson with a clear purpose: to bring objective, evidence-based performance measurement to equestrian sport. The goal was never to replace experience or intuition, but to give riders, coaches, owners, and administrators a clearer picture of what is actually happening and what is likely to happen next.

Today, EquiRatings metrics are used by elite riders and national high-performance programmes across Europe, North America, and beyond. Media partners including the FEI, British Eventing, and the US Equestrian Federation draw on EquiRatings data for competition analysis and fan-facing content. The ratings are updated continuously as new results come in from the international circuit.

No other organisation in equestrian sport combines this depth of historical data — spanning nearly two decades of international competition — with the predictive modelling capability that underpins Win Chance and HPR.

 

9. Frequently Asked Questions

What is the most important metric in equestrian sport?

There is no single answer because each metric answers a different question. Elo measures long-term competitive strength. HPR evaluates the quality of a single performance. Win Chance estimates the probability of future outcomes. Together, they provide a complete picture.

What is the EquiRatings Elo rating?

The EquiRatings Elo is a dynamic rating system that measures a horse's true competitive level over time. It updates after every competition based on who a horse beats and the quality of the opposition, not just finishing position.

Why is Elo more useful than results alone?

Results show where a horse finished, but not how strong the competition was. Elo accounts for the quality of opposition, so a strong performance in a competitive field is valued more than a win in a weaker one.

What is Win Chance and how is it calculated?

Win Chance is a percentage probability that a horse and rider combination will win a competition. It is calculated using a predictive model that simulates the event 10,000 times based on expected performance across dressage, cross-country, and show jumping.

How accurate is Win Chance?

Win Chance is calibrated against historical results, meaning the probabilities closely match real outcomes over time. Combinations with a 25% win chance tend to win roughly one in four times. Those with very low odds win only rarely.

What is the High Performance Rating?

HPR measures the quality of a single performance by adjusting for field strength, course difficulty, and margin of victory. It allows performances across different competitions to be compared on a like-for-like basis, even when the finishing scores look similar.

Why can two similar scores produce very different HPR values?

Finishing scores do not reflect how difficult a competition was. HPR adjusts for course challenge and field strength, so the same score at a harder event will produce a higher rating than at an easier one.

What is a high HPR score?

Scores above 100 represent elite, winning performances. Scores above 108 are exceptional and typically reflect dominant performances at the highest level of the sport. A score of 86+ is the benchmark most commonly used to identify internationally competitive pre-elite horses.

What do 6RA, XCJ10, and SJ6 measure?

These are phase-specific metrics. 6RA measures recent dressage averages. XCJ10 tracks cross-country jumping reliability. SJ6 measures recent show jumping faults. Each helps identify strengths and weaknesses across the three phases of eventing.

Can equestrian performance really be predicted?

Equestrian sport will always involve uncertainty. Predictive models like Win Chance do not guarantee outcomes, but they provide a reliable estimate of how likely different results are based on historical performance patterns. Over large samples, the probabilities hold.

Do metrics replace experience and intuition?

No. Metrics are designed to support decision-making, not replace it. They provide evidence and context, allowing riders, coaches, and analysts to combine data with experience and judgement.

 

10. Further Reading

• The Most Misunderstood Metric in Equestrian Sport: Why Win Chance Matters
• What is the EquiRatings Elo?
• What is the High Performance Rating?
• Why You Can't Trust the Process Unless You Measure It
• The Highest Rated Burghley Performances That Didn’t Win
• Why Just Knowing You’re Being Rated Can Make You Ride Better
• We Don’t Teach You How to Ride. We Show You How You’re Riding.
• How Paris Proved the Power of Data in Eventing: Lessons for LA 2028
• Prediction Centre - Top 5 on Win Chance for the US Equestrian Open Final at Morven Park
• Why Badminton 2025 Might Be the Greatest Five-Star Ever

 

11. Related Guides

• The EquiRatings Guide to Performance Metrics & Predictive Analytics
• The EquiRatings Guide to Horse & Rider Profiles
• The EquiRatings Guide to High-Performance Strategy & Sport Evolution
• The EquiRatings Guide to Major Event Previews
• The EquiRatings Guide to Data-Driven Horse Sourcing